Just for fun, let me go out on a limb and make some predictions.
Here are the phenomena I am observing right now (objective stuff):
1) People on most SI threads are soiling themselves, even the "respected" posters on the "respected" threads. (of course, no one ever soils themselves on the NTAP thread!) Blood is running in the streets. This is very different from a day or two ago, when everyone was taking it in stride and buying on the dips.
2) Lucent problems seem to be company-specific and actually beneficial for next-generation (DWDM) networking companies.
3) A lot of the air has been taken out of names like CMGI and Qualcomm.
4) Popular media is no longer saying "Looks like another great year for stocks!" which is what they were saying a few days/weeks ago. Even the notoriously bearish briefing.com was quite bullish last week, which is a bigtime contrarian signal.
So... my prediction is.... this downturn lasts until Monday or Tuesday, then we start blasting off to new highs and all's well.
But until then, I advise those using margin to put some cash in your account, sell some of the riskier names (eat your losses; selling a stock at a loss is better than losing your house), and just sit tight. :-) I advise against doubling down or using options.
Just IMHO. (BWDIK?)*
* BWDIK = "But What Do I Know?" catchphrase of SI's famous Bill Huebl, a humble, intelligent, diligent, and well-informed poster, who, to his great ridicule, has been predicting Dow 500 for the past few years. |
