re: "The Wall" - it will be earnings reporting; so sell the OSX "runners" prior imo.
We may not be done running - this is a "Technical" move based on sector rotation. I think we see OSX 78-82 again before we see OSX 100. I dont see us moving in a solid leg through OSX 95 without a retrace off of this coming earnings reporting.
If Nat Gas would rally on cold weather, or if Crude would break out - then one can be more confident in the E&P's - but earnings reporting for svc & drillers is nothing to be looking forward to.
This rotation move can end on merely the subsiding of money flowing here - returning to merely an imbalance of more profit takers (not dumping - just profit takers) than new buyers; resulting in a decent retrace; its coming imo - when ? no one knows; depends on the NASDQ, the DOW, commodity prices - watch the technicals here for the answer. Marc's comments have been solid imo.
This was, is and will continue to be a volatile "trading" environment. We now have stocks like ESV - super trending fundamentals - but folks; this is not far away from where it traded in near to top of the prior cycle and its present fundamentals are no where near where it supported $24-$30 the last cycle - hence, just a bit ahead of itself here.
On these mo-mo fav's; I would continually look to take "some" profits on major breakouts - BUT ! simultaneously staying near fully invested by rotating into laggards.
Laggard plays abound; no one is going to be left behind by selling any breakout players. BHI - still cheap and is on my list on any retrace again, the fabs; GIFI UFAB - yes, even FGH "technically" speaking (VBG), small cap E&P's, small cap svc IIR WG HOFF TCMS etc. Lots of opportunities to sell $3-$4 run ups and to re-buy $2-$3 cheaper as we stair step in an upward trend.
I like PGO VTS here - see decent support here and 50% upside in 3-6 mos as a given.
Earnings reporting in service & drillers is NOT bringing good news. Remember also that last Jan we had a rally, only to crash & burn substantially from there. Then we built a base and took off for the races thru May, where the fundamentals once again became the focus.
Time to watch the technicals here and as many have mentioned; take "some" profits and keep an eye open for the laggard plays on a rotational basis.
Anyone notice RGO ROIL -breaking out nicely in small cap E&P's ?
SargeK - how can you contain yourself with a certain stock having such a great day ? - fwiw, purely on an emotionless, cold hearted , technical trade - I have a nice buy limit order in at $6 7/8ths in an un named stock....
good luck |
