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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: kash johal who wrote (85799)	1/7/2000 2:45:00 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) of 1572776

Kash, <As far as flash capacity is concerned. The market SUCKED till mid 99 and rational folks had cut back. It takes 2-3 years to arrange financing,put a new fab up, stick the equipment in and ramp up production. We are looking good for next 2 years at least. There are also technology and product barriers as well when it comes to flash.> How about the significant additional capacity folks like Intel, AMD and ATML are putting in nowadays. If I got my numbers right FASL is increasing capacity by 30% in Q2. This does not even include AMD's FAB25 (not sure if AMD will share this capacity with Fujitsu as part of their FASL venture). Intel is expanding by bring back mothballed fabs. Atmel is also adding capacity big time. Apparently Tiwanese are converting DRAM capacity into FLASH and logic (partly because of anti-dumping duties on DRAMS and partly because they are lot more opportunistic.) Also the major DRAM makers are making noises about converting some DRAM capacity into Flash. What I think I am seeing is supply coming online to support 50-70% growth in Flash market (some of the supply will be in the form of finer geometries). If that puts supply </= demand everyone is happy. Otherwise.... What is your take? How much growth in Flash supply do you see for the next year and how much do you expect the demand to grow? Chuck

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