GF, <I have noticed that microprocessor folks seem to be downright myopic, focusing on MHz and performance while missing the greater trends.>
I agree, and I'm not saying this just because AMD has caught up to Intel in the MHz race.
<It seems odd to me for AMD to be announcing 800 MHz Athlons when I am writing this using a 200 MHz K6.>
When I was back home in the East Coast during the holidays, I used the laptop I bought my sister a year ago to Web surf, and that thing has a Pentium MMX 266 MHz. I originally thought that her computer would seem rather slow to me, considering that I'm going to upgrade my own Pentium II 266 to a Pentium III 550 very soon. But in fact, it wasn't slow at all, and I was rather impressed at how well her laptop functioned.
Of course, had I tried to play a 3D game on her system, it'd probably end up looking like a slide slow. But then again, I guess most purchasers of PCs these days aren't concerned with mutant-blasting 3D games.
<might not the relevance of microprocessors be declining rapidly in the near future?>
Perhaps. Intel's upcoming Willamette processor (a.k.a. the Athlon-killer) is making me wonder whether we'll ever need that much power on the desktop. It could very well turn out that for the average consumer (business or home), system-on-a-chip like Intel's Timna will be more successful than super GHz processors like Athlon or Willamette.
At least there will still be tremendous growth in servers. But even at high growth rates, the server market will never approach the unit volumes of the mainstream markets. That means all of the additional fab capacity that AMD and Intel is adding won't be required to meet the growth in servers. Thus, those added fabs will just be there to make the high-volume "commodity" processors.
I do know that several people at Intel are also asking the same questions I am, even as we continue to run the MHz horse race against AMD. We already know that Intel will eventually win the MHz race once Willamette comes out (sorry all you AMD supporters). But by that time, would it even matter?
Tenchusatsu |
