Excellent call on market direction, Rande! Once again, your reputation is among the best and intact. (In case anyone doubted.)
PLUG was a great call! Wish I'd held it. I made about $2 on it way back on the week of the IPO. I researched PlugPower, and thought it was a good idea, but had no idea it would take off like this. Looking at their website, one thing stuck out that bothered me, and I guess that is why I sold so early and never bought back. What they leave out on the website and other presentation materials is any discussion that addresses the safety issues of fuel cell (PEM) operation. There are serious concerns regarding safety anytime hydrogen is involved in this type of pressurized use. The very first time there is an accident, there will be serious consequences for the company. Why do they not address safety in their presentation on their website as full disclosure? I contend it is because production of fuel cells for commercial use is still very far away. If it were closer, there would be plenty of discussion about safety issues. Ultimately there will be. As PEM becomes more of a reality for commercial use there will have to be. But since there is none, it says to me that they are no where near ready for commercial production. Therefore, I did not expect the explosive (no pun intended) stock price movement that we've witnessed the last couple days. I still think it will be a long time before there will be a fuel cell in your home, and I think investors will be waiting much longer than anticipated. I therefore think that buyers at $16 are in good shape. Buyers today at $80, that are not strictly momentum players (i.e. those that are investing long term, expecting continued growth and gains), will be very disappointed.
I have not done any further investigation since back in November. I only mention this as a note to what I was reasoning at that time.
These are only my opinions, just offering food for thought.
Best Regards,
KT |
