Yesterday morning Andre Uddin put out an update of his recommendation of Biomira. That's the reason for the big volume over the last three days (If you recall, last February's spike to 5 1/2 on the news of the Merrill coverage was preceeded by three days of heavy trading around the 4 level - it seems that some people are finding out about these things before the rest of us).
I quote, than comment:
"We believe Biomira's stock looks very attractive given that a new marketing partnership should be forged for THERATOPE. It is possible that Biomira would partner both its 1st generation vaccine THERATOPE along with its 2nd generation vaccine BLP-25 to the same company"
"While we view the Phase III trial of THERATOPE to be higher risk, we believe there is significant upside in the near term given the news-driving events. The majority of the buy and sell sides of the "Street" currently appear to be negative on Biomira, which we believe is even more reason to be the contrarian investor"
Well, my understanding was that the company was looking to partner Theratope for more than one indication, not that they were looking to partner more than one product to the same company. I'd be disappointed if they partner BLP25 at this stage, because I think it is the crown jewel of the company and the best of all the 25 or so cancer vaccines in development that I've come across so far. If they wait until the product is ready to move into phase III they'll get much better terms. Hell, if they get a good partnership for Theratope, they may not even have to partner BLP25 until the very end when they're ready to market it, and then they'll be holding on to the lion's share.
The report contained a few minor inaccuracies, and a very conservative forecast of C$180 million 2004 sales as a second line therapy for breast cancer, yielding the same old 12 month price target of C$10.
Overall, I was disappointed to learn that the stock was moving on Merrill's word - I thought that it was finally moving on its own. It would have been more exciting if it were moving on new coverage.
I'd like to think that if a Merrill analyst says that a Theratope partnership is likely, then the company must have given him some guidance to that effect. But my overall impression is that many of the posters here know this company as well or better than Andre Uddin.
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