Charles - <One more reason I want to get PB to be a little bit more specific on what he means by "very close".>
Like how?
I'll try to infer what the above means, and follow with my response: Because Athlon 800 is on Pricewatch before the PIII 800, your are saying the Athlon 1000 will be shipping in volume before the Cumine 1000.
* - I expect by the time the 1000 shows up, capacity will be greatly improved, i.e., going forward into the ramp. I expect volumes of Cumine to start increasing on a pretty steep curve. The leaked Process Technology OEM document indicated 10% .18 Q4, with an essentially monotonic curve 10 >90% by Q4 this year. A fifth fab should also begin production this Q.
* - Admittedly, volumes are limited for the 800 now, at this stage in the ramp. This does not mean bin split is your 1% (quite confident on that Charles). I am quite satisfied with how the process and design road map looks going forward, and the ability of the respective parties to execute to the map. I guess it could be better, or else I'd be saying Intel 'll smoke Athlon. However, I believe it will at least be sufficient to stay with any competition in the next six months, by no worse than a matter of a few weeks, and very well may stay even or pull ahead, IMHO. Of course, I can only make competitive analysis on what AMD intends to do based on some pertinent information, but I in no way "know" what their map entails.
* - Intel is releasing product earlier in the production cycle. Although I am not privy to the distribution side at all, I would assume these "early batches" are going to Tier One exclusively. THe overall pictures post product release should look better as the ramp progresses.
* - Until AMD has as many Tier One and Two suppliers to satisfy as Intel, I would want "volume" specified quantitatively. As far as I'm concerned, Intel very well may be shipping more 800's per wafer start than AMD now. I don't know how we'd answer that question conclusively, but maybe we can agree on something.
* - As I've said, my position is that the race to 1GHz will be close. I don't know how better to convey my actual gut conviction.
Aside to kapkan: Is that enough substance, given the constraints you know I'm under relative to posting?
PB |
