LG, I was one of those dancing bears. Friday was one of the more humiliating days of my short investment career. I was crowing about the bull's comeuppance, only to be toasted on my shorts. (Guess what I ate for dinner?) BTW, the poor puns are a feeble attempt to convince y'all that I am taking this in good humor. Only my feet are sore, honest! Alright, maybe some other part of my anatomy (that is below the chest) as well.
The market has been running on pure emotion. The sentiment suddenly turned negative early this week. Rate fears were cited, but hadn't breakaway rates been with us for a while, and been consistently ignored? I was so convinced on Friday that the combination of LU warning and negative employment data would fan the panic. Yeah, only it was panic buying, not panic selling. But the bulls are still a step or two away from undoing the damage of this week. As I have found
out, sometimes it doesn't pay to count one's chicken before they are hatched.
To paraphrase Fun-da-Mental#1's post #36985, NASDAQ dropped below lower support line but has come back in one day to close right on the new resistance. 30-year bond yield gapped up above upper resistance line, but has come down in one day to close near the new support.
This one-day move was impressive and broad-based, and we will surely see follow-through buying on Monday. Is this a countertrend rally that is due to fail? Or is the profit-taking over and the mania is back? The market will let us know early next week. |
