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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 691.72

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Jan 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: Benkea who wrote (37013)	1/8/2000 10:26:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Ben, that A/D chart does look like a break BUT move the top starting point of that line down to the next top and we are still under. DMP - I hope you know I was commenting on the over all attitudes on SI and NOT aiming any arrows at you personally. I thought you took a lot of heat from people on this string we hadn't heard from ever that felt the need to show up and start gloating and throwing punches. As I posted to you in private, I was going to step in but since I didnt' get home from work until late that night and it was well after the fact, so I kept my mouth shut. I know that you know these stocks are over valued and are simply trading on the greater fool theory. My concern is for those lurkers that don't know this and don't babysit their positions thinking they will have time to get out if things turn down. I looked at the charts a little more as I have been getting ready to update my site and am noting that much of last week looked like September 98. Strong drop, rebound at end of week forming hanging mans in the stronger sectors. The next week headed down slightly then the collapse hit. I am not through all my charts still so I am not decided on where we are headed still. The broader market is looking good as internals improve, but we are hanging around some important resistance levels in some sectors and barely clinging to supports in others. The NYSE index looks like it has to bounce, the NASDAQ looks like it is headed for the 3900 area and then could double top fail. The DOW and SPX are liekely doing the same at first look. Brokers, telecom and Gaming is very weak. The most confusing chart is the TYX bond interest rate chart. We are looking likely to drop ( Bond go up) yet the short term cycle from this week is showing it could bottom quickly then head up to even higher rates which would shoot the theory I posted here all to heck. Even in the bullish scenario, I have utilities quickly approaching a heavy resistnace area soon, Banks don't look as strong as I had hoped, and I am starting to get over bought signals firing on some of the strong cyclicals from this week. Too early to tell for sure and I haven't had enough coffee to think straight yet. Good Luck, Lee

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