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Technology Stocks : Ericsson overlook?
ERIC 9.505+1.1%3:59 PM EST

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To: Tri Vo who wrote ()1/8/2000 1:45:00 PM
From: Raymond  Read Replies (1) of 5390
 
This is the year when the orders for 3G equipment should start to roll in.It will not be like when other new technics has come.A slow start and when it becomes popular the big orders comes to the suppliers.Here the systems must compete with the old systems GSM,PDC,TDMA,IS95 and others.It means that the operators want to have complete networks in place before going in to service.What are we talking about.In Europe 30+ countries with 3-5 new networks in each country.Asia,Australia something similar.America who knows? They have sold the frequencies for use in the PCS systems.If we take the Europe and Asia networks the initial orders for most of the networks will probably come this and next year.Japan is first where NTT-Docomo already has placed orders.2 other operators will have licenses.
I guess Ericsson has around 35% marketshare for infrastructure.I think it will be higher for the 3G WCDMA systems.Ericsson is in the front when it comes to all aspects.Ericsson has by far most contributions to the WCDMA standardisation followed by Nokia and NTT-Docomo.It means that they will have some nice IPR:s and possibility to steer the standard their way.The have also most testsystems and has been the biggest promoter of the WCDMA standard.
The old systems will probably continue to expand in the same pace as before and the 3G systems will just be added and generating huge extra income.The biggest problem may be to produce all the equipment that will be needed.

/R
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