PB,
<Because Athlon 800 is on Pricewatch before the PIII 800, your are saying the Athlon 1000 will be shipping in volume before the Cumine 1000.>
Nope! I am saying there needs to be metric that makes sense. CuMine 800 on the date of announcement was a total sham.
<* - I expect by the time the 1000 shows up, capacity will be greatly improved, i.e., going forward into the ramp. I expect volumes of Cumine to start increasing on a pretty steep curve.>
Agreed! That definitely favors Intel. Even with very thin splits Intel can enable a few SKUs. AMD can clearly not do this.
<Admittedly, volumes are limited for the 800 now, at this stage in the ramp. This does not mean bin split is your 1%>
You are distorting the facts and you know that. My last report on bin splits several weeks back was that 800 MHz bin splits are in high single digits. (they may have gotten a little better now but I haven't checked since)
<However, I believe it will at least be sufficient to stay with any competition in the next six months, by no worse than a matter of a few weeks, and very well may stay even or pull ahead, IMHO. Of course, I can only make competitive analysis on what AMD intends to do based on some pertinent information, but I in no way "know" what their map entails.>
This may come back to haunt you. If rumors on OEM sampling is any indication, Intel is not even close to what AMD is sampling nowadays. The thing to be seen is if AMD can ramp production without any significant glitches.
<* - Until AMD has as many Tier One and Two suppliers to satisfy as Intel, I would want "volume" specified quantitatively. As far as I'm concerned, Intel very well may be shipping more 800's per wafer start than AMD now. I don't know how we'd answer that question conclusively, but maybe we can agree on something.>
AMD will not have have as many customers as Intel any time in the near future. They just don't have the capacity to be in the same ball park. So, that one doesn't hold water.
I would say Pricewatch is a pretty decent measure. This is when demand and supply are in a reasonable balance. Do you agree? The other metric may be when the system becomes *available* from couple of large OEMs. I am game for either one though the second one heavily favors Intel because of its sheer volumes.
Chuck |
