physicsdh,
You and JC are doing some fine work on Yahoo. I agree 100% with your 256k chip post. That is one of the main reasons why I think it is reasonable to think that XICO could be at a $200mm a year sales run rate later this year.
What a day and week! Can anyone believe that 3 5/8 up move yesterday? All I can say is that the fun and profits have only just begun. Don't be discouraged if we give some of this move back. Remember, I said just recently that the moves will be big and they will go both ways.
Jeff, I disagree with your comment on Yahoo that XICO is not a buy a this time. Tons of money has been made buying stocks when a company is emerging into a growth stage. Look at your beloved ATML. If you would have bought it years ago when it started its growth phase, you would have had a five bagger (split adjusted) from $20!
Also, you are way off base calling XICO a momentum stock. A momentum stock is a stock whose price has disconnected from its fundamentals. If you want examples of momentum stocks go look at the internet, B2B, B2C, and internet infrastructure companies whose stock prices have discounted everything good that can possibly happen in the next 5 years.
Most of the move in XICO since January 1999 is due to the successful resolution of following risks: 1) XICO going BK, 2) transition to the fabless model doesn't happen, 3) industry stays in a down turn, and 4) XICO never has top line growth. We still have the actual delivery of significant top line growth and increasing profits over the next 1-2 years to be reflected in the price of the stock. Your risk buying at this level is that they don't deliver the significant top line growth, but from everything I am hearing, that risk is diminishing with every week that goes by. The recent accelerated move in the stock is, in my opinion, the beginning of the realization that they are going to deliver significant top line growth and/or possibly a big news event soon.
Now, those of us that took the above risks early last year are getting greatly rewarded. Those that buy now won't make as big a percentage return, but they are not taking as much risk either.
I am not suggesting that people go out next week and chase the stock. But, as long as the industry stays healthy and there continues to be a reason to believe that XICO will have significant top line growth, pullbacks, in my opinion, represent a buying opportunity for the aggressive long term investor.
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I am long XICO, and as always, people should do their own DD and not base their investment decisions on anything that I post on this thread.
PS: Was the end of that Tenn vs. Buf game something else or what! |
