To All: The High Tech Strategist review. Fred really has game this month.
1. November was the fastest and biggest one month rise in margin debt ever. Of course, my guess is December was worse.
2. Fred thinks the Fed will not remain reckless because they have a credibility problem. I disagree. This Fed has had zero credibility for a few years now, so why should they care if they lose a few more people with 3-digit IQs? After all, they rule with the double-digit types.
3. He mentions that in the 1969-1970 bear market, the ten largest computer stocks, including IBM, fell an average of 80%. Many again lost 80-95% in the 1973-1974 bear. In 1989-1991, the Fidelity Select Computer Fund saw its assets drop from $119 million to $16 million. Gee, last time I looked, that fund has a bigger drop this time if it goes back to $16 million in assets. <g> Anyone think they may have sold some stocks below cost at that time?
4. Nice comment on Oracle. In 1990, the pe peaked at 32 times while revenues grew 56%. Today the stock is selling at 125 eps with sales growth last quarter of 12%. Looks like rational behavior to me. <g> It reminds me of the story a manager told about Thailand at the peak of the emerging market mania. "It used to be I could find stocks with 20% eps growth selling at 5 times. Now, I find the same stocks with 5% eps growth selling at 20 times." If I remember correctly, the 20 times level didn't hang around long. <g>
5. The best comment of the issue, about the reported tech spending boom analysts see for 2000: "analysts are now predicting a rebound from the decline they never saw coming."
6. He found it funny that Gateway used Y2K as an excuse for missing their quarter as they do almost no business with large corporate buyers. It didn't surprise me. They lied. What else is new? <g>
7. Retail desktop unit sales were up only 11% in November, and December could be worse. Let's see, with unit sales growth in the mid 20% area earlier in the year, revenues were down 9.7%. That can't be good. <g>
8. Question of the day: In November, of the top 5 selling notebooks, how many were powered by Intel processors? If you are a good Catholic, then you know the answer is NUN. <g> 3 AMDs and 2 Apples.
9. Cell phones seem to be coming down from peak growth.
10. 1995, Sox at 300, sales of chips at $150 billion. 1999, Sox at 700, sales at $150 billion. And you can count the new pair of dimes in that huge sales growth figure. <g>
Once again, I have no connection to Fred Hickey and actually pay for my own subscription. Those who know me realize that that is a rare compliment. <g> If you want a trial, contact Fred at PO Box 3133, Nashua, N.H. 03061-3133. |
