Well I still don't have any answers, only questions.
First if anyone thinks they know the grand plan, I would love to see it put here in Plain Engligh, no graphs, look at this etc, but a we go up/down until ____ then up/down to ____ because of ____ so us communication challenged people can understand. <ggg> I keep seeing forecasts that don't mean squat to me since when I get done with them, I don't know if they are long short or flat. Then I see a week later where everyone predicted it in advance and posted for all to see so we should have known.
As for my forecast, like I said, I don't know but I have some possibilities. I checked the OEX call put ratio in dollars site and as of Thursday, Puts outnumbered calls 3-1 in dollars which tells me that since next week is expiration I read somewhere ( I thought it was the week after) then the bias is up until that ratio gets flattened. I haven't checked my "Max uncomfortable" level yet so I will do so later tonight.
As I said before, I note that the weekly is very bearish and resembles September 98's top while the weekly says we flushed out the weak hands so we could go up from here as Dennis said. I however am noting that I read somewhere that Carpino says we go down to the 13th then head back up around the 16th. This is not what I believe but we'll see. I think the opposite is in store if we repeat Sept 98. I believe we go up this week then fall the week after.
What keeps worrying me even though I love the market internals, the over all economic picture etc is how high valuations have become and looking at simplified charts this afternoon. Here is why...
Anyone that has Jerry Favors graph of the 3 peaks and a domed house should look at a simplified chart of the NASDAQ, GE etc. They almost overlap perfectly and we just made the peak I believe and are working on that right shoulder IMO. I know that chart was supposed to be for the DOW but I think the NASDAQ may be leading this charge up then down. Opinions?
The other thing that worries me. Look at the earnings releases from IP, PG and MMM for the last few quarters and they are no CSCOs, EMCs or SUNWs. Now look at their movements this week of which, some of the moves were forecasted but now they are done. The moves were based on TA but looking at the changes in valuation, they are approaching the ridiculous again. First it was the techs where 25-30% growth justified a PE of 100, 150, 200 etc. Now 2-8% growth stocks are justifying PEs of 100, 40+ and 26?? Yeah right. Anyone see that newsweek article that showed the headlines from the future where they engineered the tree that actually did grow to the sky???
I don't know anything yet as to the immediate future but I would love to go off on a tangient. I spend too much time watching the History channel, the learning channel and the discovery channel, PBS etc so I admit I am strange. ( you all are in trouble too because I was just picked as a Nielson rater for a week <ggg>) ANyway, I was watching some specials about the Roman empire etc then was channel surfing looking for something else to watch. As I flipped around I found, the WWF doing the usual fake matches, breaking metal chairs over people heads and the locker room brawls, flip to the next channel, Gladiators fighting it out in elaborate TV sets with spinning drums, swing ropes etc, flip, advertisements for various amateur tough man fights on Pay per view where any moron that thinks he is Rambo mascerading as Clark Kent can go get his head bashed in in a no rules all out brawl ( the more blodd and permanent damage, the better the ratings), flip, Moronic action adventure shows where one Texas ranger will kick box 50 men armed with automatic weapons in the middle of a desert and none of them will squeeze off a shot to hit him between the eyes and turn him into coyote food. Flip flip flip, Van Damne and Scharwzanigger taking on the entire Soviet Union single handed and winning, flip, Segal taking on a crack team of commandos and winning, flip, JAG where military laywers that have never left their desks through out my real world career are suddenly out winning wars by themsleves, flying airplanes, steering Aircraft carriers etc, flip, Roller Derby where buxom Blondes in 70s hotpants and bust lines popping out of their tank tops bash each other with elbows... oh never mind, turn on the radio and tune in NPR, Ah relaxation. <ggg>
My point, the Roman empire dumbed down the masses and fed them gladiators that got increasingly gruesome right before the end. Are there yet? You can't watch TV for 5 minutes without getting a commercial that used to be serious about investing but now we have Stuart with his multi-color hair telling how to trade, Foreigners that don't even speak English yet but can tell the English Instructor how to use Ameritrade, Yoga lessons where the ideal euphoric Eutopia is trading online while doing head stands.... Are we there yet?
Society has become about as liberal as I hope we can get. I am an old fashioned cold war veteran/anti Iron curtain fighting SAC warrior where Peace was our prfession, war was our hobby and total anialation was our goal, I believe that you should know as much as possible about world politics, the state of our union and have learned from experience that you don't believe 80% of the propaganda put out by any government since we lie just as much as the other side. We are now in a totalitarian politically correct society, so don't ask me about gays in the military or anything controversial like that. Free speach has been outlawed, just ask a baseball pitcher for the braves. Excuse me, the PC police are here.....
Good Luck,
Lee |
