OK, JD, outside of political discussion, I'd like to post a message I just sent via PM in response to a guy concerning MSFT's near term outlook. His question/statement is first, then my response. I know this is a little unorthodox, but with the dearth of info on the board lately, I thought it might at least be interesting for you and maybe some short termers out there. Questions/comments welcome, but not required. <gg> (disclosure: long)
<<do you think MSFT will at least touch $120.>> 120 is now major resistance and should be watched closely. If it makes a weak rally attempt to there or a little above, then falls, not good. If it blows thru on good volume, great, 130 is possible.
<<I don't think the DOJ will bother msft until win2K is over. >> Don't count them out. I've heard they may try to delay W2K til a settlement is reached. Negative cloud which may be one of the reasons for Softie's relative weakness lately.
<<people will pay attention to only earnings + win2K hype right now.>> If they were the stock probably would have been acting better lately.
<<I heard there was rumor regarding the earnings short fall but that was nothing but a short raid on the stock.>> Agreed.
<<i feel now with all the pre-announcements out of the way. We should re-test $120 right??>> Don't know. Again the stock has not been acting well lately so the next few days will tell us alot, esp with Intc earnings.
<<I think intel will beat,>> They've been known to not preannounce and still come up short.
<<msft will blow away because they told analysts last time to raise the estimates by 3 cents to $0.43. I think they will come in at 0.48cents.>> Agreed. Let's hope anyway. Key is - where will the stock price be when/if they blow away estimates?
<<how much experience do you have??>> Brief dossier: Ex-broker (1987-90). Traded stocks/options off and on from there, more heavily since 98. Quit DJ and began full time trading in March 1999, but really since mid 98. Portfolio from 50K in Oct 98 to 3 Mil+ now. Options have had alot to do with it. Best trade ever was buying 200 CMGI Jan 180 calls at 50 cents in November (see CMGI post 13977) and selling at 100+. Started buying MSFT options in November and now have over 500 calls plus 5K shares.
So you can see, I hope you're right about softie. I'm just concerned that the stock has been underperforming other tech and the market recently - NAZ +155, MSFT +1 7/16. That's pitiful...when the market tanks, it tanks too, but when the NAZ rallies big, MSFT nudges up 1 1/2 points. Makes me think there's a problem going on behind the scenes and "smart money" is selling into strength. Also chart looks weak and I think there'll be alot of sellers waiting all the way up to 120. Beyond that it should be clear sailing to 130. Again the next few days will tell us whether Friday was a confirmed reversal low or just softie running along with (and a little behind) the market.
Chetman |
