Robert, I always pay attention to your analysis and agree with the idea that RFMD run into successive up and down cycles. I can not comment upon the June 1 target. I would certainly enjoy it though, most of it will depend upon the stock activity in March ( I am convinced that January and February will be strong, pushing the Nasdaq to new highs).
However, I would factor in some CEBIT effect into your trend cycle. As you may know CEBIT (the Trade Show in Hannover Germany)competes with COMDEX for the first place in IT trade fairs and exhibitions. Last year's COMDEX announcements certainly help gear the whole IT market up. So did Telecom 99 with the WAP protocol. CEBIT is by far the biggest trade show in Europe, every vendor in computing, telephony, applications, semi conductor is getting ready to announce its 1H2000 products, solutions and partnerships at CEBIT. Given the strength of the European manufacturers in wireless telephony (Nokia, Ericsson, Alcatel, Siemens) not to mention the providers (the likes of Vodafone, E-plus, TIM...), expect some solid product and strategic announcements to come out by the third week of February. As a result the whole sector will benefit which will lead to only a very short term retreat for RFMD. |
