Lee: I thought that would be your answer.
There is no such thing as being absolutely sure when timing the market or forecasting levels. You know that, I know that. The most specific technique I know of for forecasting levels is E-Wave. It is subject to interpretation as is most technical analysis. The best at E-wave I have seen, seem to need almost a daily revision. I personally do not find it reliable enough to use.
I do think there is great value in technical analysis by latching on to those indicators and charting techniques that yield the highest percentages. Trend lines, support/resistance areas, price action patterns and volume patterns are all measurements of investor/trader psychology, in my opinion. However, to be effective and reliable they have to be done competently. This competence only comes from a good understanding of how they work coupled with experience. Then the above should be coupled with a "few" good indicators that work best for each individual. Then you have a system. No system is infallible, but they do assist greatly in removing emotions from the equation and that is important!
Then, in my opinion the best way to present this information is with a picture (charts and graphs) coupled with some commentary. If your charts are good, little commentary is needed. A picture is worth a thousand words. Once folks see how its being done, they can work at doing it for themselves instead of relying on someone else to feed "just" the numbers.
For those that do not have the basic knowledge to understand charts and graphs, there are plenty of books and web sites out there that will assist in educating.
Some times the charts are just so revealing you just know what is going to happen, but the truth is no one really knows until it happens. Except the privileged few and I am not talking about individual investors...<g>
I have intentional left out fundamental analysis as that is not my forte. I do believe in today's market it has taken a lesser role. However, having a good understand of sentiment has taken center stage in this mania...<g>
Regards,
LG |
