Nice to see all the postings these days, I've been following PDX since early december and for awhile it seemed like I was just posting to myself.
It would sure be nice to have real-time quote of the short interest..This info is unfortunately reported by brokers to the exchange only once per month. So here's an estimate with some basis in facts:
1) we know that as of Dec 8th, short interest was 5.7 million shares, 102% of float.
2) I will assume that the short covering prior to January was negligible. Here's why: it is not possible to short in an IRA account. Therefore, the profits from covering are taxable. In December the stock seemed dead, and since your choice from Dec 8th on was to either cover and pay taxes in april, or wait a few weeks and cover in January and pay taxes in 16 months, I assume most people chose the smart move and waited until January. In addition, the short sale proceeds were presumable invested in other securities, a further reason not to cover.
3) average volume for December ~ 150 k /day. So I will take this as the normal buying that does not represent short covering.
4)volumes from January 3rd, the first trading day of the new year:
jan 3 197,700
jan 4 149,900
jan 5 249,400
jan 6 987,700
jan 7 1,359,700
5) number of posts the the Yahoo PDX board per day. I will use this for an estimate of the fraction of the volume which is long. From Dec 29 to Jan 7, per day (including the holiday weekend):26,52,19,15,10,24,26,54,134,170
6) Estimate of short covering so far:
Jan 3 = 50k
Jan 4 = 0
Jan 5 = 50k (volume was 100k over average, posts indicated increased awareness of possible squeeze. Guess 50k was new longs, 50 k was covering action)
Jan 6 = 400k (volume was 850k over average, posts indicate dramatic increased awareness by longs. Guess 50/50 again)
Jan 7 = 720k (volume was 1.2 mill over average, posts indicate even more awareness, guess 60% was short covering, I think I'm erring on the side of too much short covering)
ok, so if you add up these numbers, as of monday morning before the bell I estimate the short position at 4.48 million, which is 80% of the float. I think this is a minimum number. Most short squeezes that you may of heard of in the past started with a much smaller percentage of the float than this. PDX seems primed for a rather serious jump. |
