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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (10927)1/9/2000 6:53:00 PM
From: marc ultra  Read Replies (5) of 15132
 
Since I have not received my Marketimer yet and probably won't for a few days I will speak freely today about my conjecture. I think in the newsletter Bob will for the first time since the beginning of the mega bull call for a less than 100% invested position in the equity portion of the portfolio. The part that's very hard to figure is will he go to 80%, 50% or call for a bear market and go to 0%. What is his model saying? 1)economic-growing too fast but if no recession clearly in sight would it be negative at this time? Hard to say. 2)monetary-undoubtedly the money supply will now decrease post y2k but will his model show negative at this time? 3) sentiment may be mildly negative but I don't know the P/C data. Investors intelligence bullishness high but well below 70. 4)valuation-obviously if he finds this excessive and with us hanging around all time highs is negative. Hard for me to say based on this that a bear call is imminent. I will stick my neck out and say he is going to do a true rarity-lower his 100% invested position to somewhere between 50-80% invested in the equity portion of a portfolio. Once I receive my newsletter I won't discuss this. I also won't publicly discuss any information I might by chance hear about privately. Next weekend should be a very interesting show

Marc
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