Greg, from experience I know that often germs of truth are in rumor posts like this - especially when the posts seem credible - not written in a hyping manner, and there is inclusion of supporting "facts" in each post.
If so, what parts might be on target? That is the hard part to guess. As you say, if we can believe management, both OA and HC WILL be IPO'ed and it really IS just a matter of time (and timing).
Let's look at the three posts closer
Post #1 says:
MRVC Board
by: emsa44
1/6/2000 4:58 pm EST
Msg: 21804 of 21914
I have heard through my sources that next week MRVC announces the spinoff of OA and that Merrill is the underwriter.Has anyone heard anything similar?
Post #2 in reply::
Spinoff next week...
by: speed717
1/6/2000 9:18 pm EST
Msg: 21817 of 21914
You've got it right EMSA. The deal will be announced next week that OA Business will be spun off with Merrill as lead. Godd sources, keep up the good sniffing
Post #3 says:
ipo speculation
by: Bilbobaggin
1/8/2000 10:03 am EST
Msg: 21878 of 21914
Rumors of OA ipo announcement next week as stated on this board are false.A little birdie told me the following: OA ipo will probably not be done until this summer. Management believes that the optical division growth rate is accelerating and would like to have 2 more quarters of accelerating growth before doing the ipo.The revenues and earnings will allow them to beat analyst estimates for the coming quarters.
Hyperchannel ipo could be announced the week after next with a road show in early to mid February. Hyperchannel has a high profile former Cisco exec and doesn't add to the bottom line of mrvc yet.It also is in a very hot area as we all know. Rumor that CIBC Oppenhiemer will be part of underwriting team on Hyperchannel but can't confirm. Happy investing.
********
The first two posts tie Merrill to OA and give the timing as "next week" (now this week). The last post says HC instead of OA and a week later, but still this month. He gives detailed "reasons" why this is so, particularly the "bottom line", and we know that this has been of high importance to MRVC management in the past. A road show is mentioned and CIBC Oppenheimer is named as "part" of the underwriting team.
Except for which one is first, the posts aren't really in conflict. I posted a thought based on logic, that if anything "non product related" is announced in January, it wouldn't be the week of ComNet, when there should be CW and Nbase-Xyplex news. That still leaves the next two weeks as "available" for news.
SPECULATION.
I myself have posted opinion that a longer OA track record (and revenue to cover the high R&D expenses that Noam stated would still be present in Q3 and Q4) might make good sense. We also know that the BLS/Marconi effort is not only accelerating, but that their efforts are being "redoubled". This would indeed look good for OA prior to an IPO, and might get MRVC a higher price. I also posted that I thought HC was about equally close to being IPO'ed, based on factors I thought were important before any IPO.
Perhaps there WILL be SOMETHING happening in these next two weeks? Perhaps the first two posters are right about the OA underwriter but NOT the timing, and have also heard that something will be happening, and assume it to be OA? Perhaps the last poster's more detailed info is closer to being correct? Keep in mind that Q4 earnings are not out for 5 weeks yet. Therefore, "TWO MORE QUARTERS" could refer to Q4 (Feb 14) and Q1 (end of April), and they could still announce from May on.
We only have to wait and see - something we don't like to do, but we are all getting good at it! <g>
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