Your T/A is better than you think. All your points are valid.
Looking at the weekly chart, MACD is way out of range to the high side, Stochastics is rolling over on top, RSI is on the way down, and Williams %R shows over-accumulation. Whether this means sellers will simply remain tight and wait it out, or are flushed remains to be seen.
I think a look at the moving averages is telling. The 5 week moving average is well extended past the 20 week moving average. Divergence between the two cannot go on forever, and based on the extent the 5 week has climbed, it looks like the more likely candidate to budge.
The good news is the 20 week moving average (100 dma) will provide excellent support. Combine the fact that the 50 dma is going to provide some support at $55, and the fact that the 100 dma is resting at $50, and it looks to me that the worst case scenario is a retreat to $50, if everything possible goes wrong.
The most obvious sign things might change was the divergence between price and two important momentum indicators, MACD and RSI, which began in late November 99. At that point, both indicators began to gradually decline while the price continued to climb. This divergence between price and indicators is a very reliable means of determining when a move has run its course.
Settle back to the 100 dma is my best estimate, considering the fact there has been only positive news, the addition to the Nasdaq 100, and tons of interest through most of 1999. I'm sure most institutionalzed buyers would be more than happy to gobble up shares at the $50 price level, but I am not sure if they are willing to pay $65 at this point in time, based on the company's position regarding pending lawsuits, etc.
I'm looking to get into this one REAL BAD. I make no claim to know anything more any other investor, and do not wish to inspire any ill will based on my thoughts. However, I am not willing to pay $65, and my gues is the big boys are not either. If enough retail buyers show up to move the price at this point, I'd be very surprised.
Best to all longs, hopefully I can join you :o)
Regards, JB |
