Lee and LG:
I don't think it is possible to be very specific. I don't think the writing of the note is ever the way we want it either. You have to move with the markets. I look at these things as a framework for acting. However, my guess was posted below for the year.
www3.techstocks.com
It is working out so far. From that post, we are in the midst of the paragraph below.
>>>>>Now this is what I need to see for the short term advance. Shortly, there needs to be a decline in the INDU to around 10700. The ARMs should be over 1 for several days. I want lousy volume and issues numbers. This would support an oversold short-term situation sometime within the next two weeks or so. After that, I want to see some improvement in issues numbers--better breadth--but I do not expect it to be very good. That is based, to some extent, on the lesson being learned this quarter about buying "value" stocks. Once some improvement is made in the issues, I want to see very strong NYSE volume numbers--maybe 8 advancing to 2 declining on a daily basis for several days. That volume should be moving into a narrow number of issues that will move the indices. If this happens, I think a rally can last into the first quarter with a top at about 12500 to 13000 INDU. That top will be dictated by the amount of funds moving from the garbage-nets into the cyclicals.<<<<<<
As you can see, it took to the very end of the 2-week period (from 12/18) to hit 10997 and I missed it by a couple hundred points. Additionally, the advances over declines is a bit better than I expected. Last week, we had a bearish move in the INDU below its latest high. However, it was negated by the immediate new highs.
So, I will watch for 12500 to 13000. |
