Sparkie, I am not trying to bowl you over with logical tricks to keep you from leaving the fold. As an individual investor, you and only you are responsible for your portfolio. And of course this is why it was appropriate for you to refuse my offer. You are the one that finds himself worrying about deteriorating prices. You must do what you think is best. For your sake, however, I would hope your future decisions come after you have obtained enlightened counsel, not as a panicked reaction to market events.
At issue still is Mark Brophy's remarkable valuation of a company that would produce earnings growth of 32% for nine years. If his valuation still seems plausible to you, then why don't you check it out by asking professionals for their opinions. Show them just the numbers, and ask what they would expect the stock price to be in 2005. If they hedge their answers, note the reasons why. Try to find a CFA if you can. You might even give this as a test to your stock broker or advisor. Also, feed the numbers into the model Mitchell referenced in Post #925.
I think many lurkers on this thread would be interested in results you obtain, as well as your final assessment. You need to be confident in YOUR assessment of WIND's future value, not what I or anyone else says its worth.
As for handling down-side volatility, there is much that can be said about that important subject. I could write volumes about it, and find it one of the most interesting aspects about investing. Here are two things to think about: First, you must learn how to live with volatility; no investor is born with that ability. Second, the best way to learn to live with volatility is to view it as the individual investor's friend. Volatility caused by market inefficiencies represents a wonderful opportunity for the individual investor to make money - and another way to beat the pros.
Allen |
