HIGHLIGHTS OF MARKET NEWS SURVEY OF US ECONOMIC FORECASTS
WASHINGTON (MktNews) - Following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the
Market News weekly survey. The comment section presents the key
elements behind the median forecasts.
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Producer Price Index for December (percent change)
Thursday, January 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Dec99 Nov99 Oct99
PPI +0.3% +0.2% to +0.4% 21 -- +0.2% -0.1%
PPI Core +0.1% UNCH to +0.2% 20 -- UNCH +0.3%
Comments: U.S. PPI is expected to rise 0.3% in December, due again
to rising energy prices, mostly in gasoline. The food component is
expected to be post another small gain, while core PPI is expected to be
up 0.1%. Vehicle prices are expected to post a second straight small
rise, and tobacco prices are expected to be near flat. The attention of
analysts continues to be focused on the pipeline measures, as softer
core readings in November could be reversed in the December report.
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Jobless Claims for week ended Jan. 8 (change/level in thousands)
Thursday, Jan. 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Jan08 Jan01 Dec25
New Claims -19/290 -24/285 to +5/314 11 -- +33/309 -7/276
Comments: Claims are expected to fall 19,000 to 290,000 in the
January 8 week after a jumping 33,000 in the week between Christmas and
New Year's. This once a year event usually boosts claims, with a
retracement the following week.
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Retail Sales for December (percent change)
Thursday, January 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Dec99 Nov99 Oct99
Retail Sales +1.0% +0.5% to +1.5% 21 -- +0.9% +0.3%
Ex-Autos +0.7% +0.5% to +0.8% 20 -- +0.4% +0.8%
Comments: Retail sales are expected to post another significant
gain in December, even with seasonal adjustment factors expecting store
sales to be large. Auto sales are also expected to contribute
significantly to the overall reading, which is expected to be up 1.0%.
In addition to department store and apparel sales, the expected 0.7%
rise in ex-auto retail sales should include a boost in drug and grocery
store sales. These components were affected by Y2K prep as consumers
stocked up. Gas station sales were likely helped by higher prices.
Analysts caution that the January figures could also be affected by this
planning due to some late buying in December that was not captured by
the survey. The report shows that consumption continues unabated.
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Consumer Price Index for December (percent change)
Friday, January 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Dec99 Nov99 Oct99
CPI +0.3% +0.2% to +0.4% 21 -- +0.1% +0.2%
CPI Core +0.2% +0.1% to +0.3% 20 -- +0.2% +0.2%
Comments: Overall CPI is expected to rise 0.3%, with energy price
gains continuing to trickle down from the wholesale level as gasoline
pump prices remained high in December. Transportation prices,
particularly in airfares, are expected to accelerate in the month and
boost core CPI 0.2%. Overall, Fed watchers have already figured in this
magnitude of increase in their estimates of a 25 basis point move in
February. A larger gain in inflation than expected could alter those
rate hike estimates higher.
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Business Inventories for November (percent change)
Friday, January 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Nov99 Oct99 Sep99
Inventories +0.4% UNCH to +0.6% 19 -- +0.2% +0.4%
Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise 0.4% in
November, reflecting a 0.5% rise in factory inventories and expected
smaller gains in wholesale and retail inventories. Analysts attribute
some of the buildup to Y2K preparations.
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Industrial Production for December (percent change)
Friday, January 14 at 9:15 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Responses Dec99 Nov99 Oct99
Ind Prod +0.4% +0.2% to +0.6% 21 -- +0.3% +0.8%
Cap Util 81.1% 80.9% to 81.3% 21 -- 81.0% 81.0%
Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% in
December, due to further acceleration in manufacturing ahead of Y2K. The
utilities component is expected to be tame after see-sawing in recent
months, while capacity utilization is expected to rise slightly to 81.1%
as factories stretched resources to meet holiday and Y2K demand. |
