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Phil,
SVGI is very well known; has lost credibility after stumbling badly in both its track and lithography divisions;
it is regaining credibility with its exceptionally strong earnings preannouncement.
If both the track and lithography divisions catch fire, then SVGI has immense upside. Lithography is starting to look very promising; and the ProCell coming out of track sounds great - but its still very early days to make that call.
On the other hand, MTSN is, and has been an almost total unknown. It has used the last downturn to qualify its tools where they can provide most strategic leverage to MTSN's growth. Again, we're in very early days re seeing the success of MTSN's strategies.
In a nutshell, MTSN's growth and ultimately its stock price growth is as close to a sure thing as I can see in today's market. (As long as the global and US economies don't collapse along with their markets.)
SVGI offers some exciting potential, but IMO, it's a higher risk investment. i.e. Even though its share price is protected by its book value and cash on hand, the company needs flawless execution this cycle to win back the street's favour. And we've now had almost 2 quarters in a row of sterling performance. I don't know whether that will be enough given the enthusiasm for the sector, or if another couple quarters with key product successes will be necessary to see its potential realized.
JMHO,
Ian. |
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