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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Apollo who wrote (14926)1/11/2000 1:33:00 PM
From: Mike 2.0  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Re EXDS

I concur with Stan's assessment that EXDS is a king. I have looked very closely into ASP field for work related purposes and have been excited by what I have seen. The "information as utility" metaphor was used heavily in a recent ASP conference I attended and I concur with it. Consequently I see EXDS et al as enabling "power plants" in this new "info as utility" age. I have heard the acronym AIP (App. Infrastructure Provider) used to describe EXDS, and others like DIGX, NAVI, BWAY etc. Without the AIP the ASP can't deliver 24x7 value-add applications. The analogy that an AIP is to an ASP as operating system software is to enterprise software applications is not as specious as one may initially think...to have one you have got to have the other. So, AIPs are an enabling technology, but not "proprietary" as defined by TFM. I conclude however we have a king here.

In fact I am stunned by recent articles stating that buildings with high ceilings and floor structures able to accommodate heavy loads as being sought after aggressively for loading up with networking gear! This environment translates to an incredible growth environment, where EXDS' first mover advantage is incredibly important.

Meanwhile I am looking for G&K ASP plays. Portal Software ASP billing s/w solutions) sounds interesting. I am less interested in ASPs themselves because switching costs from one ASP vendor to another are not significant. One other possibility is JDEdwards which seems to have embraced ASP model more so than others in midsize ERP market, but they would qualify IMO as only a healthy happy chimp however. Not a bad possibility but not a G&K nonetheless. If anyone has any other ideas in ASP related space please post.

BTW, my remark on an earlier post on this thread that no value investor would ever choose EXDS is based on my earlier "value" investing practices which frankly sucked wind. If you have time to kill check out my old posts on the Value Investing thread. For example, after XRX stumbled only then did the stock appear on the "value" investors' radar. At such a point though, you have what I now like to call a "dented can," as in the damaged goods grocery section. Maybe the food in the dented can is perfectly fine or maybe it will send you to the ER...too often the latter in the investing world. Paradoxically, the GG reduces risk vs. the "value" investing method of trying to figure out which "dented can" is OK!
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