AOL Highwater Mark: January 10, '00 Message Board

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Technology Stocks : AOL Highwater Mark: January 10, '00

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To: WTSherman who wrote ()	1/11/2000 4:35:00 PM
From: starpopper	of 1

You're thinking along the same lines as me! Initially I thought that this made good sense, but after sleeping on it I've come to believe that this is totally unnecessary and has the potential of turning out very badly for AOL shareholders...at least in the short to midterm! AOL currently has about $2 Billion in debt, but TW has $20 Billion in debt! They will still have to spend another $5 Billion to expand and upgrade their cable over the next 2-4 years. Yes the deal allows AOL to have more of an anchor to real world valuations, but the thinking that it will validate, or preserve the current value of AOL is ludicrous. In a cyber market crash AOL-TW won't fall as much as AOL only, but it also won't grow as fast either! I'm not even sure that this thing is going to happen. What will Turner and Levine be saying when AOL's stock price sinks to below $40 as my analysis has projected? What kind of dilution will AOL shareholders be willing to accept? Is there a collar on the deal...what is the bail out price?! Clearly holders of AOL above $70 won't see there money anytime soon, but I'm going to watch closely because there will be some trading opportunities in this mess sometime soon! $tar.

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