thanks for the thorough response, Robert:
Yes, my opinion on the market direction 3 months ago was totally wrong. And, as I said in an earlier post today, I've lost almost all the 15% of my money I put into QQQ puts then. And, I sold all my CSCO in April 1999, because I considered it absurdly overvalued, then watched it more than double to today. Only made 6 times my original money, when I could have made 12 times, if I'd held til today.
Still, the reasons why I thought the market would go down have not changed. And those indicators are very reliable, long term. Since 1998, long (and short-term) interest rates have soared, and so have stocks. This is a historical anomaly, it defies basic economic realities. Stocks can't keep on going up, if interest rates continue to go up. The anomaly will be corrected. So, in addition to being arrogant and an idiot, I'm also stubborn. I think I was early, not wrong. I vowed, when I began investing, that I would stay 100% in the market 100% of the time. My puts last fall were a way of reducing risk, so I didn't have to sell my long positions. I'm breaking that rule, now, and getting out.
I believe in Reversion to the Longterm Historical Mean.
I believe most "New Eras" aren't
I believe valuation always matters
I believe in reducing all risk that can be reduced
I believe in taking profits
and, yes, for your amusement, I'll say it again:
the end is nigh |
