Intel Corporation (INTC) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 37.24

-2.8%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Process Boy who wrote (95738)	1/12/2000 1:22:00 AM
From: Saturn V	Read Replies (2) of 186894

The earnings forecast of 0.63 cents does not add up at all. In October 1999, the Intel management said that it expected world wide PC demand in Q4 99 to exceed Q4 98 by 20%. The shortages seen since then imply that (a) the demand growth was significantly greater than 20% or b) Intel had a yield crash on 0.25 micron process, limiting output increase to less than 20% The Intel ASP have held up historically, although they fell slightly this year since the Celeron share has gone up. Even allowing for a ten percent lower ASP in Q499 vs Q498, gives a revenue increase of at least ten percent, assuming no yield problems. The margin percentage was believed to be holding up. Thus unless there is a major yield problem, the profit should go up by a lot more than ten percent. I would look for twenty percent or more. So why has'nt the Intel management tried to raise the analysts estimates ? Is it because of Q2 and Q3 misses by a few pennies ? Or am I missing something ? Or are the whisper numbers in the range I am thinking ? Well we all have to wait for Thursday.

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