PC soon will play second fiddle to communications as chip consumer
By Robert Ristelhueber
EE Times
(01/12/00, 09:51:26 AM EDT)
PEBBLE BEACH, Calif. ( ChipWire) -- The personal computer will be eclipsed shortly as the pre-eminent consumer of semiconductors, with communications and a new consumer platform taking center stage, according to speakers at the Industry Strategy Symposium here this week.
"In the first half of the decade, communications will overtake PCs," predicted Clark Fuhs, a vice president at Dataquest in San Jose. The last few years have already seen a dramatic shift, with communications doubling its share of the chip market since 1995, to 22%, while PCs have dipped from over 30% to around 25% today.
What's more, communications will surpass all computing platforms as a semiconductor consumer by the end of this decade, Fuhs said. This will have a far-reaching impact on chip suppliers, he predicted. "The communications market is fundamentally different from the computing market, with diverse technologies and fragmented competition. It's also very quick-moving."
Manufacturing will be affected, since communications-chip suppliers are more likely to use outside foundries than PC-chip vendors do. In addition, since many communications circuits are built with analog or mixed-signal processes, they tend to use older process technology.
"There are some products that will still be driven by 0.7- and 0.8-micron," Fuhs said. This will present a challenge to chip manufacturers, since they will need to adopt a broad range of processes. "We could see the emergence of a market for lagging-edge equipment," he said, adding, "There are lot of g-line steppers still being shipped."
He doubted the trend would slow the adoption of new process technology, though, since a number of communications circuits, such as network processors, will still need to stay on the leading edge.
Meanwhile, the emergence of a new digital platform for the home will eclipse the PC in the home in a few years, predicted Takeshi Oto, director of multimedia development for the System LSI Engineering and Development Division of Toshiba America Electronic Components Inc. in San Jose. This new platform would likely combine the functionality of the digital set-top box with the video game player, he said.
The PC will be hard-pressed to expand its presence in the home because of its price and user-unfriendly status, Oto said. Before a new digital platform can dominate, however, its price must drop below $100, and issues of standards and copyright protection for digital media must be resolved, he said. The PC's PCI bus doesn't address copy protection.
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