Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Greater Fool who wrote (86715)	1/12/2000 1:54:00 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (3) of 1576152

GF, <I meant what new PC volume is going to absorb the new Athlons, which are an addition to the worldwide supply of microprocessors? You can't just add more microprocessors to the marketplace and expect the prices to remain constant. People on this forum and elsewhere have raised the point that Fab 25 will be converted to flash, that eventually the Intel fabs will be retired, and that overall microprocessor demand is steadily rising. All of these may come true, but to me the important point is that they all must come true for AMD to be as highly profitable as so many hope.> I assume that demand is going to grow at about 20% per year. I assume that additional capacity from Intel/AMD will not materially exceed that level in 2001 when both AMD and Intel will have to move to products with larger dies (Intel moves to Wilamette and AMD moves to Thunderbird/Mustang). So, I don't quite see a flood of excess capacity. If there is excess capacity, I expect Intel/AMD to ship more PCOAC products that consume even more capacity. Sounds reasonable? Chuck

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