To all -- RE: Faxes & the $500 million Analysis
I was faxing out the lawsuit and agreement to interested parties until 3:30 a.m. last night (eastern time). I think I am married to GIFS -- up to 3:30 a.m. faxing out info; then, wake up at 9:29 to buy some shares, do some work, come home, and start faxing again. I just got home, but will be gone for a few more hours before I commence my daily faxing routine - probably around 11 p.m. or midnight. Thus, to those expecting faxes from me, I thank you in advance for your patience. I think everyone who faxed me by 2 a.m. last night received their fax last night and I've got a couple who e-mailed me even later and today who would also like copies.
This thread never ceases to amaze me. I agree $500 million is a huge number, almost unbelievable, but let's not forget, we don't know time frame, etc. etc. I hope no one expects $500 mill in revenue this year. I sure don't. However, in the future, I can see where it would be feasible. For crying out loud, they have almost $200 million in absolute dollars coming in from the Congress Deal (proceeds, interest, consulting contracts) over the next ten years. That is nearly $200 million. Throw in a couple more sales and spin offs (The gold mountain, etc. etc.), and we are talking about a company that has the bucks to pull something like that off, especially because they could have like $250 million or more (in absolute terms) to buy companies several years down the road, etc. And that excludes the potential income from other start up ventures. I am sure with that type of money they can structure a portfolio of start-up and existing companies that can generate that type of revenue -- after all, after 10 years, that is only $2.50 per asset dollar. Don't good companies get like $10 plus per asset dollar in Revenue?? This is a quick and dirty analysis, but somewhat realistic. I am also sure there are companies out there that you can can buy for less than $200 million that generate $500 million in Revenue. So I don't see $500 million as far fetched in a few years, especially if a purchase or start up venture is financed over the ten years, meaning GIFS doesn't need to take on debt to buy a company or start a new project.
The key here is obvious -- long term. Don't go out and buy GIFS tomorrow expecting the potential for $500 million in Revenue this year. Buy GIFS with the belief that long term, if all works out according to plan, this is a company that has the potential to be worth some bucks. time will tell. If you are impatient, go to commodities. Trust me, You can make a fortune or lose a fortune, in a matter of minutes, especially with how speculative the weather is.
Management is highly intelligent and sophisticated. Let's not forget - the deal still needs to be closed. as soon as the signatures appear on the dotted line, the audit gets done, company credibility is restored, we will hear about where the new deals and ventures are. Until then, I would recommend that we focus our attention on other things, or else we may see things get out of control and a cloud develop whereas everyone thinks something that is going to happen, but never does. Let's not forget, it could be months before the new venture(s) is (are) released. I'm willing to wait it out. I don't need a news release every day to keep me in this company. I understand the commitment a deal like this takes to pull off and I am willing to wait.
Again, I am not hyping the company. This is merely stating facts. I did not increase my position by 20% today based on rumors. I am buying based on the present facts and the belief that management sold off CRIC because they could put shareholder dollars to better use elsewhere. Isn't that we pay them to do???
As for delays on the audit -- no concern here. Didn't I post in like January telling people with a deal this complicated we would not see Financials until Late May. The simple fact is the audit could not be completed until the Congress deal was completed. Statement of FAct. For once I was correct. Let's hope I am correct about the future of this company. If all is clean with the audit report, I am seriously thinking about doing what no investment advisor would ever recommend: putting 100% into one company. I could lose big, but I also could win big. That is why I am in this stock, and to get some good advice on my date tomorrow night with a "GIFS widow." (giggle, giggle)
And let's put things in perspective here. A lot of people are buying this stock with the expectation of a few hundred percent gain. Let's put thigns in perspective. If you bought at 1.50 today and get $2.0 by the end of the year, that is still a 33% return, nothing to shake a stick at.
Well - I'll be back later and hopefully get all the faxes out by 1 a.m. tonight. Later. MTM. |
