AOL, YHOO, CMGI and IDC:
AOL sure has taken a pounding. THink its about over. Not that the stock is going to just bounce back to 75, but should trade in a range of 55-70 over the next few months with an upward sloping bias. This really is an incredible good combination. But it seems blowing out AOL (and YHOO and CMGI)is being done as a venting of the excessive move up that we had in December. Soon, real money will be coming into AOL. But i see it as a lackluster performer in the coming 6 months or so.
YHOO - sure am glad it beat estimates !! YHOO is probably the class internet company now. AOL is under the merger pressure described above. Like you pointed out, Ron, YHOO always beats, and always gets beaten up, and, I might add, always bounces back. Again think the selling is about done on it, but unlike AOL, think YHOO is much more likely to bounce back in the short run.
CMGI - ditto the above. CMGI remains the class of asset investing in the internet. They have the same portfolio and investments as last week. But the bloom is off the rose right now on valuing internet assets.
IDC - hope people didn't go too heavy on this one. It certainly does not appear to be "the next QCOM" - whether it has real merits or is a well conceived Pump and Dump remains to be seen. I'm holding a small position from a price i'd rather not say. have resisted all urges to either average down or jgtho (just get the hell out).
As many analysts have said, we have a broadening out of the market, which is really great. Remember, more than half the stocks had a negative year in '99. Value is coming back into play and an astute investor should be redoplying some of his/her assets into this sector, even if painful to make the shift after the sharp markdown in the nets of the past week. It probably will get worse before it gets better in this area. jmho. do your own DD. larry |
