For 300-mm, there's the fast and slow ramp scenarios
By J. Robert Lineback
Semiconductor Business News
(01/13/00, 09:40:27 AM EDT)
PEBBLE BEACH, Calif. -- With investments in new semiconductor plants expected to surge this year and next, industry analysts and production tool suppliers are debating whether or not 300-mm wafer tools will play much of a role in the current recovery cycle.
Most industry observers agree that the current 200-mm wafer generation will be the workhorse of volume manufacturing well beyond the middle of this decade, but it still remains unclear how quickly 300-mm fabs will ramp up in mass production.
At this week's Industry Strategy Symposium, Dataquest analysts argued that 300-mm (12-inch) diameter wafers would not be economical before 2003. However, investments in 300-mm R&D and pilot lines will peak in 2001 with an expected eight to 12 facilities being in place by the end of next year, said analyst Klaus-Dieter Rinnen, associate director of Dataquest.
Dataquest now predicts that 300-mm fabs will ramp into volume production in the 2003-2004 timeframe. By the end of 2004, between 15 and 20 fabs will be processing 300-mm wafers worldwide, according to Rinnen, who presented the Dataquest forecast at the ISS conference this week.
Others believe the 300-mm ramp could occur more quickly because Taiwan's aggressive silicon foundries are jumping into the game (see Jan. 10 story). United Microelectronics Corp., for instance, is currently claiming the lead in plans for 300-mm production after announcing a joint venture with Hitachi Ltd. in Japan and breaking ground for a wholly-owned 12-inch facilities in south Taiwan. Both facilities are expected to begin production in 2001. Meanwhile, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is also building a 300-mm fab in Hsinchu, and it expects to begin processing silicon in early 2002.
"There are forecasts of 28% [capital spending] in 300-mm by 2004, but I believe it could be more like 50%," said chip analyst Bill McClean of IC Insights Inc. during a forecasting session at ISS. The Scottsdale, Ariz.-based analyst believes a number of 300-mm announcements will be made in the next couple of months as pressure builds on chip makers to increase units volumes and drive down costs with larger substrates.
Other industry observers suggested that too many companies still cannot afford the hefty price tag of high-volume 300-mm fabs, which are expected to cost in a range of $2 billion to $4 billion each by the middle of this decade. Japanese chip makers have begun asking their suppliers to help them reduce the cost of facilities by making "mini-fabs" more feasible, noted materials analyst Daniel J. Rose of Rose Associates.
Rose presented two separate market scenarios for 300-mm wafer consumption by chip plants. The quick ramp scenario showed 200-mm wafer volumes peaking in only five years, while the slower buildup places the 200-mm peak at 2015, Rose said.
Measured in millions of square inches, 300-mm substrates are expected to account for just 3% of the silicon used in fabs by 2003, according to Rose's current forecast. The 8-inch (200-mm) wafers will account for 65% of the 4,460 million square inches of silicon processed by chip makers in 2003, he said.
"In view of the difficulties and delays associated with 300-mm, we are skeptical as to whether 400-mm or larger [wafer diameters] will ever be adopted," he said, referring to semiconductor roadmaps that have penciled in larger substrates in the next 10 years.
According to Dataquest, 300-mm production fabs will account for about 14% of the total $34.56 billion in frontend equipment purchases during 2003. By 2004, 300-mm will climb to nearly 29% the industry's $34.57 billion in fab tool revenues, predicted analyst Rinnen, who is based in San Jose. In 2005, 300-mm tools will account for about 50% of the fab equipment purchases, he added.
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