MD: I am WHINING about the LOSERS on the Street.
Since this is the place to whine, that is my focus.
I tend to be a rational person, perhaps more than most. The street is not very rational in the short term, but often is in the long term.
The problem with IDTC, IMHO, is that it is a very unpure play and is buffeted by events largely controlled by people not educated in what it takes to evaluate it. Further, it is tied too closely to NTOP and some traders could care less about news and just buy/sell in concordance with the NTOP price.
Can anyone, even on this board of whiners and losers, really stand up for Vik Grover? I suspect some of you could stand up for Herb Greenberg. I know I have reservations about many past actions and inactions. But, in this year 2000, I don't see the company having done much to criticize. They are doing roughly what they promised. Any negative reaction must thus be blamed on an impatient street.
And, I deny any statement by you that the Street has spoken. The Street speaks daily in contradictory terms. Since the start of this month, we have had mad gyrations UP and DOWN of the major indices. The street is confused and flighty. I have no respect for it.
When it comes to a stock like IDTC, we are dealing with a tiny subset of the street that actually knows this stock exists. Not a statistically significant sample. On days with low volume, anything can happen. If I chose to sell a few million dollars worth of my other stocks and start buying on these days, I can raise the price easily, at least for a few minutes. If I choose to sell the stock I own, I can drive it down easily.
But, I will only do what is my own best interest, as I see it. So, I will not buy or sell rapidly in large amounts since I want to get the best price I can. I bought 3K shares yesterday that was an insignificant addition to my holdings. When I saw it had no lasting effect and it plunged another $1, I stopped buying. I focused on buying other stocks.
I submit that a large fraction of retail IDTC shareholders is maxed out, or worse. Many, like myself, have shifted to options as a way to play and got burned in December and may get burned in january. I sold some NTOP options already and am up for January, but I had hoped to make lots more. The "street" can hurt me on options, since they are short-term, but they can do nothing to force me to sell my long IDTC shares until they come up to my price. And, since I am stubborn, my price keeps rising the more they manipulate the stock. They will have to shake shares loose from somebody else.
And, I keep repeating what some of you can't hear. The company has chosen to do this backwards. they announce some pieces with little context and expect to announce the overall plan and restructuring at the end. No wonder the street has no idea what is going on. But, if we wait patiently, or wait impatiently, the plan should make sense and win over the street in the end. I will be there.
I choose to direct my frustration and anger at the blind people on the street. They are the ones that have not followed through by trying to actually understand the news and the changes at IDTC and BUY what is definitely a bargain. |
