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Technology Stocks : Mattson Technology

MTSN 3.600

0.0%

May 12 5:00 PM EST

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To: John Stewart who wrote (2419)	1/13/2000 5:50:00 PM
From: Q.	Read Replies (1) of 3661

re. the timing of the peak of this cycle, here's one idea, from Morgan Stanley Dean Witter' semiconductor analyst, Mark Edelston N.B., I don't believe anybody can forecast the cycle accurately. =================== High demand fuels semiconductors Chip shortage good news for stocks, says analyst By Colleen Bazdarich, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 2:13 PM ET Jan 13, 2000 <snip> CBSMW: You are pretty bullish on the sector, but what are the risks that long-term investors should be looking out for? Edelstone: Well, the semiconductor industry is very cyclical, and the cyclicality is predominantly driven by the supply side of the industry. It is our expectation that given the supply-demand equilibrium that we have now -- where there are perhaps shortages in some areas -- we are going to see a fairly big increase in capital spending over the next two years. That will sow the seeds for the next period of excess capital spending and oversupply and that will lead to the next cyclical peak in the industry which we think is probably 2002. cbs.marketwatch.com

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