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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (11100)1/13/2000 8:51:00 PM
From: Gary D  Read Replies (1) of 15132
 
Justa, re:"There is one issue in my mind that sticks out at this point -- namely, is Brinker calling for a bear market or is this more of a risk/reward asset allocation decision? Brinker discusses the root causes of a bear market but does not explicitly call for one. And, as we know, if Brinker was calling for a bear market he has said he would go to 100% cash and he has not done so here. Moreover, if he were calling for a bear, shorting the market would have been a discussed option and this option was not mentioned in the newsletter. So, perhaps, with a 60% cash allocation he currently see the risks of a bear market at 60% at this time? Hope we get clarification this weekend."

I think I recall Bob saying that he would not predict a bear market until a decline is already underway. At the onset of a decline he does not expect to be able to distinguish between an intermediate correction and a bear market. So since a decline hasn't begun yet, it's way too early to be predicting a Bear.

In light of the above, we could recast your question as
"Is Brinker calling for either a bear market or intermediate correction, or is this more of a risk/reward asset allocation decision?"

It's my impression that Bob might predict "either an intermediate correction or a bear market", and not go to 100% cash until the actual Bear call is made sometime later.
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