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Technology Stocks : Leap Wireless International (LWIN)

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To: tensforme who wrote (788)1/13/2000 9:06:00 PM
From: Lance Bredvold  Read Replies (1) of 2737
 
Capacity vs. Coverage: CDMA is able to handle more bytes per base station than any other technology and LWIN has taken this fact and used it to it's advantage offering something I don't think others can match easily. I understand AT&T had an "all you can use" trial in Plano, TX which they have recently cancelled. Of course Sprint and ATI and maybe a third operator in Orange county do use CDMA. But their advertising and emphasis is on giving the customer wide coverage without roaming charges. To do that they must build base stations in places where traffic will not cover the cost of that particular base station so that the more profitable bases which attract middle or upper income subscribers can support them. It probably costs more than $30 a month to build and maintain such a system.
That does not make it a poor model--just a different one.

LWIN goes into the heart of the city, advertises locally and builds concentrated bases to maximize the number of subscribers who can be on at any one time. Sue Swenson made a strong point at the annual meeting that this company impressed her with its heavy emphasis on cost control. The expected customers are middle or lower income people in the most densely inhabited parts of the city. Phones are paid for in advance, as is long distance and also (I believe, local) and phones are still probably full price or close to it. I noticed there are (vestigal?) stores in Chattanooga to sell Cricket, but I can easily foresee mail order sales and sales through Wal Mart, et.al. as Leap learns what works. Shouldn't need billing in each market either. Just send all bills from one place, let Ericy or Lucent or whomever keep up the equipment (I'm just guessing--but my point is there should not be much local talent needed.

Airtouch and Sprint cannot easily offer all you can use $30 coverage because they need to support their systems out in the country too. IMO.

Though I've driven through Orange County many times, until you told me some of the cities, I was not aware of it. Sure, there are probably areas which would be suitable for LWIN. But there are other cities more suitable at this time most likely.

I wrote you a much better response a few days ago and lost it. Just couldn't get up the enthusiasm to do it again. Anyway, glad to see you interested. This is a fine company.

Lance
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