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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound
REFR 1.560-2.5%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST
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To: Bill Wexler who wrote (6054)1/13/2000 11:52:00 PM
From: Bill Wexler  Read Replies (3) of 10293
 
Some thoughts about the Greenspan speech tonight.

This has to be his most strongly worded speech in a long time. He has gone from "irrational exuberance" to an outright "I will continue raising interest rates until I feel that speculative excess in this stock market has abated".

I think tech stocks are wonderful. I think it's great to play around with these big swings and skyrocketing prices, but I also know that no matter how much new paradigm thinking there is floating around there, when interest rates reach certain levels, risk in equities becomes unacceptable...and technology stocks ARE sensitive to interest rates (believe it or not) because ANY stock trading at a 100 multiple discounts a lot of rosy future, and I don't care how bitchin' their technology is.

I can't predict short-term ups and downs very well (look at Intel!) and it is certainly possible that the stock market may continue ignoring interest rates...for now; but I am as admant about this as I was about going all-out long in October of 1998:

Use any rally to lock in profits, reduce exposure to tech across the board and any new purchases or money shifted in equities should move towards traditional, boring, low-multiple value stocks.
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