Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (58483)	1/14/2000 12:15:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) of 95453

On topic; JimL, I think we go into the rotation to the laggards mode next Both in the overall market & the Oilpatch. I agree with most of what you are saying; however - I think it will not be so much just the Fed Rate Hike, but Greenspans comments about the rate hike and the growing sentiment that we may need to see a 1.0% total move before this is brought under control. A 7% bond may have to be contended with. The markets can absorb and have priced in that first .25; but they haven't priced in the sentiment shock that Greenspan is going to lay on them imho. I also think that OPEC will maintain their cuts - and as others have termed this, to in reality be a near "embargo" - we are guaranteeing the realization of $30 crude oil; which will get Greenspan's & the Market's attention like a Mike Tyson Left Hook. True laggard sectors are fine, but I would be looking to take profits in the overall market on any strength. Personally, I am maintaining my over-weighting to the Oilpatch. I think the "boutique" plays are fairly priced here, if not due for a bit of a re-trace; as BJS upside surprise is going to be the exception not the rule here. But, as we saw with GIFI & UFAB today - laggards have quite a ways to go here. The E&P's are really going to post some huge qtr over qtr & year over year upside during their reporting period here. The flip side to hedging is going to be seen if Nat Gas stays soft here as well.I think the SII WFT CAM NE ESV's are fairly & fully priced here; but the fundies will put their traditional flow of funds to work in the smaller caps & laggards and the E&P's will have their day in the sun shortly imo.

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