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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Charles R who wrote (87009)1/14/2000 12:21:00 AM
From: Charles R  Read Replies (1) of 1576121
 
Thread,

I went out for a long dinner - just wanted to get away and relax for the evening. Now I am back. I will maintain that what Steve pointed out on amortization and what I pointed out on investment gains and lack of revenue growth in CPU side is ample evidence that Intel missed the quarter. But I won't dwell on it.

Now looking at AMD and what is means to us AMD longs: Here is what I think happened this afternoon as far as AMD is concerned:

Intel shipped less units that I thought they would. Intel also had ASPs higher than Q3. I think the only way that is possible is that Intel upsold BIG time - lot more than I thought they did (I say this because by all indications there were very few CuMines in the quarter.)

It is hard to tell exactly what was shipped given Intel doesn't tell much in their conference calls but I estimate that Intel left 8-9Mu worth of business on the table - assuming the bottom did not fall off the demand.

The question now becomes what part of that AMD ended picking up. I say 1Mu Athlons and 5+Mu K6s is cakewalk. But could they have done more? I think they could have if they were sitting on inventory going into the quarter or if they saw this coming and went overtime on the manufacturing side. My guess is they did a little of both.

Bottom line: I expect the earnings to soundly beat the 0.26 number Niles had. The exact number is extremely hard to guess given the leverage from Athlon but I say the range looks like $0.30-$1.00 to me.

So, I will stop thinking about what Intel did or did not do and get ready for a big party!

Good luck to the longs.

Chuck
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