jack- Very good questions. And I know what McGinn would say if you asked him. And I know what Roth would say if you asked him. What you are really asking is to predict the future and who is positioned best for it? My answer is I don't know to 1, 2, and 3. I don't even have an opinion on it. These guys have intimate relationships with the carriers. I'm sure they both came away with different ideas on what they would be ordering up.
And even if one of them did hit the nail on the head, look what happened to TLAB and their R&D spending on the AN2100. TLAB spends millions and millions developing it specifically for Sprint. Then Sprint goes and cancels the ENTIRE project. So who lucks out and benefits? Nortel does. Carrier spending is like this. Another reason I like to diversify my infrastructure picks. You can't predict them changing their minds.
I wish I had an opinion on it and then I wouldn't be 1/3, 1/3, 1/3. You did leave out Chambers vision and he certainly is no dummy as to what he believes the future of the carrier market is going to be like.
Personally, with CSCO, NT, and LU, I spend the least of time on because I have the most long term confidence in their management. So I'm not even that intimate with their HUGE product portfolios.
The only opinion I can offer somewhat mirrors Chambers. It's one of execution on the bottom line. Something that Cisco is in the lead with. Lucent is/was next in line. But I have to say, I'm hesitant about Nortel. A quick glance at all their quarterly results over the past six quarters will point out my concern. But then again, the stock price fundamentals reflect this. At least they used to. I'm so out of touch, I don't even know if this is true anymore. I believe NT has risen so much, that they can't fail to stumble without putting a hurting to their market cap.
Anyway, that's my $.02 worth. -MikeM(From Florida)
PS Did you catch the part where McGinn said (I think it was in their CC) Lucent was going to have a LOT of products for the OC-192 space by mid-2000? I wasn't sure if I heard it correctly, but I thought that is what he said. If so, it blows all your thinking about OC-192 vs. WDM positioning. That's how fast the landscape changes. I can't keep up with it. |
