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Biotech / Medical : Catalytica Energy Systems, Inc. (CESI)

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To: Liatris Spicata who wrote (1439)	1/14/2000 8:56:00 AM
From: Liatris Spicata	Read Replies (1) of 1514

Xonon vs. FC- A gentleman from Massachussetts made some commonsense comments on Yahoo comparing FCs and Xonon: <<In my opinion (I post as FC_analyst on the BLDP board), the comparisons between Xonon and fuel cells are interesting, but off track. Fuel cells will not compete with gas turbines in any meaningful way for many years. Entry products generally will be 1 MW or less (most 250-kW or less), a size range where gas turbines are less-compelling options for power generation. At the low end of a few kW to a few 10s of kW, a gas turbine will give somewhere around 28% efficiency at capacity and some lower amount as you drop the load factor. FCs will be 40% or so, with a fairly flat efficiency curve over a substantial portion of the load curve. Efficiency is only one factor, of course, especially for a small on-site generation unit. FCs offer a number of unique attributes (as do turbines), and will find the earliest buyers in market niches that place the most value on those attributes. In the MW size range, you are likely to find high-temperature fuel cells that offer in excess of 50% efficiency on natural gas--much better than the simple-cycle efficiency of any turbines in that size range. There is the potential for direct xonon-FC competition if hybrid FC/turbine powerplants see the light of day. The hybrids have the potential for unmatched efficiency (the concepts I've seen discussed range from 63% to 80%). In the hybrid configuration, the FC would replace the combustor, so xonon would be left out in the cold. There are small-scale tests underway, but I'm not worried about hybrids having any noticeable impact on Xonon for a good long while. My basic point, behind all this wind, is that the early FC products will differ so much from turbines that simple comparisons of cap cost and even levelized cost of power generation can be more misleading than informative.

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