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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.835

-1.1%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: gdichaz who wrote (3270)	1/14/2000 10:02:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (4) of 34857

A couple of points: What on earth is this talk about cdma2000? Nokia got selected by NTT-DoCoMo as one of its prime W-CDMA development partners. Nokia got selected by the world's biggest CDMA operator (SK telecom) as its W-CDMA development partner. Nokia landed a W-CDMA development deal in China. Those GPRS deals that Maurice likes to badmouth - they are upgrade paths to W-CDMA. That's the point - Nokia's new GSM network gear has built-in slots for GPRS, EDGE and W-CDMA. You pop in a new module as they come out. Those GPRS customers Nokia won are going to be transferred to W-CDMA at some point. That's the point of Nokia's 40% market share in the GPRS market. These GSM operators that are the richest, most advanced, most ambitious operators in the world. Don't take my word for it - read their annual reports. They are ready to splurge on GPRS now and they may want to splurge on W-CDMA later. Either way, Nokia wins. And here we have a cheese & whine club about Nokia's CDMA shortcomings. So landing both NTT-DoCoMo and SK Telecom is chopped liver? I take those two operators as development partners over Sprint or BAM any day. Getting a foothold in China and snatching the huge operators in Spain, Taiwan, etc. in the GPRS-EDGE-W-CDMA upgrade bandwagon doesn't impress you people? Take a look at Motorola and Nortel and tell me whether you like their strategies better. If winning the GPRS battle is lame - what about losing it? How sad is that? To put the handset thing in perspective - there is a market for internet and WAP phones in Europe. And there isn't a market for internet and WAP phones in USA. That's how it is right now. Would you like Nokia to compete with Samsung in the "who can make the cheapest CDMA phone for Sprint" sweepstakes? Or would you like Nokia to compete in the "who can make the most popular 700 dollar WAP phone that will sell a million units in Italy alone" competition? I know that there will come a day when USA is an enormous market for internet phones. But right now, the high-end action is in Europe and Asia. It's in those markets where WAP is offered and there are consumers familiar with mobile data since 1995. Maurice - there are going to be 1 billion GSM subs by 2005. I don't know where you get your numbers, but TDMA's global subsrciber base was 7% and CDMA's was 10% for the most recent stats I have seen. Both grew by 22% year-on-year during the 3Q 1999 as far as I can tell. GSM hit 51% share and that share is rising every quarter. So if GSM has majority of the world's subscribers... and that share is rising... how do you think the GSM upgrade sales are going to look this year as WAP is offered in most markets? What do you think has driven Nokia's five consecutive quarters of handset market share gains? Sorry about So-Cal. Tero

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