Steve, I think it could still see some pressure down, but most of the worst is over. SFE, which owns 15% just raised another $100 mm, so I think they would not have done so had they been planning share sales this soon. Beside, many investors, even insiders, would be faced with STCG if they sold this soon (many exercised options and they have held the stock less than one year). I bought in the teens, pre-split. I sold any IRA/non-taxable shares I had. To have sold the taxable shares at 180, say, would have cost me 39% fed tax and something like 8% state tax, so I'm giving up well over 45% of my proceeds, effectively giving me $99 a share. I would rather hold down to 110 than sell early and trigger the tax costs. Granted, I may risk some of my gains, but I also have a pretty good chance of recovering. At LTCG rates, I only need it to reach $132 for me to be even with the $180.
Granted, not everyone is in a similar position, but many are and the float is low. Some have already sold before the lockout.
My point is there is at least as much pressure now from early holders as there is from insiders. Granted, insiders own far more shares, but only a small % will come to market, and the BIG insiders know the consequences of filing to sell psychologically on the stock and will take that into account. My take: continued slight downward pressure, but not as much as you seem to believe (of course $110 isn't that far from 140 anyway).
I don't expect a surge of buying until well after lockup as the fence sitters will assuredly not want to buy into a selloff. |
