Earlie: <<Generically, one has to like oil, but currently it does not stir my blood. Prices are elevated, and ANY slowing of the global economy will send it tumbling. I expect that tumble before April (but I'm usually "Early").>>
I agree with your take, and would add a somewhat ironic twist in that as, IMHO, the cooperation of the OPEC nations was the result of fears of political instability if crude prices were to stay in the $10 bbl area, it may be political instability (or the threat of it) that prompts a breaking of the ranks.
stratfor.com
I doubt that crude will revert to its earlier levels, and would guess it stays in the $16-$20 area, which would be ample to fund exploration projects. However, if there's news of production quota cheating, the oils and related sectors will probably have a negative knee-jerk reaction, IMHO.
Personally, as a private investor with only a casual interest in the sector, I wouldn't be adding to holdings at this time, either. I don't see anything positive happening to crude prices until there's some fundamental improvements in the Asian economies...that's fundamental, not stock market price fluctuations. |
