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Technology Stocks : USRX
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To: Thomas Dremel who wrote (17614)4/24/1997 5:20:00 AM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen   of 18024
 
Thomas, re >Some questions about the future that may prompt some selling?<

Maybe it's the cynic in me because my shares have been beaten to a pulp. Re Instinet, who cares. We know that they don't reflect overall market sentiment anyway. We'll see what the day-time market reaction is tomorrow. BUT if the past is ANY indicator of the future, what happens when the exuberance over beating down-revised estimates by 2 cents wears off? Will it be back to worrying about (multiple guess):

1) Threat posed by Intel of possibly displacing 40% of 3Com's business by putting the NIC on a single chip installed on the motherboard?

2) Modems and NIC's becoming low-margin commodities?

3) The 56KFlex consortium's drive to make their protocol "the standard"? (Never mind that USR's modems are software upgradeable by virtue of the DSP chip. Journalists don't want to get that "technical" when reporting on an on-going "war").

4) The x2 time-to-market lead by USRX being "less than expected"?

5) Continuation of slow-down in demand for NIC's and other 3Com networking equipment as vendors "decide among all the options offered"?

6) All of the above.

7) Some new worry that we haven't heard about yet. Oh, I know: Possibility of the combined COMS/USRX missing next q's earnings because ____________. What we don't know yet.

I know I shouldn't be so cynical. But I can't help it. I'm supposed to be happy that my shares have now reached 49 in after-hours trading, which is where USRX was last July. Somehow I just can't get too excited. My apologies.

DK
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