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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: greg nus who wrote (87321)1/14/2000 9:55:00 PM
From: Dan3  Read Replies (1) of 1573304
 
Re: you seem to have left out dresden production...

Hi Greg,

Dang! I knew I was being too conservative :-)

Those numbers are supposed to reflect most CPU production shifting to Dresden as much of Austin is converted to flash. And I expect the margins on flash to stay good, but to come down some from where they are now.

I've been pretty conservative with the ASPs since I think the competition with Intel will stay fierce - but Intel has recently said they will need copper for .13, so the time AMD has granted itself (by starting earlier) to perfect copper makes me confident that they will be able to at least hold their own heading into 2001. The maybe we don't need copper approach has probably distracted Intel and delayed it from where it would otherwise have been.

I also expect the K6-X to become a portable only processor in 2H, then be replaced by a portable Athlon towards the end of the year. This would leave the lower end open to VIA. It's a business that AMD doesn't seem to be wedded to. I was trying to present a worst case scenario, and I get a stock price of $280.

I don't expect the com division to be sold at this point. I don't think AMD needs the cash flow any more, and is better off with the diversification and potential for integration of com into PCOAC.

Just speculation, hopefully it will actually turn out much better :-)

So where do you think we will we be in terms of stock price at the end of the year?

Regards,

Dan
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