>Sam Citron writes: I notice that you are quite interested in several of the computer projection companies, eg, N-View, Proxima, etc.
You're right Sam. I think the projection industry has a promising future because people will require larger displays as TV and data converge. Projection is inherently cheaper than large area displays in which the footprint of the light valve is equivalent to the image size. They are also capable of providing higher resolution today, and that lead will increase.
Projection displays are expensive today because of the need for a high tech illumination system, and a state-of-the-art LCD or other spatial light modulator.
In the future, I see the price of lamps falling, and perhaps lamps even being replaced by diode lasers once the three primary colors are available. Lasers would take a lot of cost out of the optical system as well as improve the color and power efficiency. This is why SDLI is spending money on GaN, which could complement their red power laser diode technology and provide a full RGB laser lighting solution. Don't expect any revenues soon from SDLI there, however. I also see the price of poly-Si LCD technology falling drastically since projectors only use several sq. in. of LCD material. This will happen when manufacturers become as proficient at making poly-Si LCDs on large area glass (instead of expensive small area quartz) as they are with amorphous-Si. Presently, suppliers cannot meet demand and can therefore get high prices. It's also hurt the US projection companies, since the available p-Si goes to the Japanese producers first. In general, I think both of these developments can be expected within five years.
The wild card is the future of TV. If digital TV looks more like the WWW, then higher resolution, larger displays will be needed due to the need to resolve text alongside your favorite show or ball game. If TV incorporates less data features, then the demand for larger TVs will be less.
Today it costs you $6000 or so for a state of the art projector which gives you roughly 1m2 of image at 2-3X TV resolution and is finally beginning to look OK in a lit room. About $2B per year of revenue is done in projection, with the bulk of it still CRT. Companies like INFS can eat into this large existing market are near price parity today and a large quality advantage (remember that last movie you saw on a 767?), and have an enormous upside potential for selling a $1000 home entertainment center should data and TV merge in the near future.
I think INFS is a screaming buy at $18, whereas PRXM may deserve their recent beating. Unfortunately with INFS, I did my screaming buys at the mid 20's, but I plan to hold on for a while.
I don't know much about WDM and the like, but I enjoy following those threads to learn more. Also, thanks for your admonishment of Mr. Gottlieb and his hype-loaded style of presenting his pitches. There's a chance you'll reform him and save him some money in the long run too. |
