William,
I basically agree with your interpretation of AG's remarks, but I would question your strategy of buying puts at this time on stalwarts like Cisco and GE, unless you have merely begun to dip your toe into the water and plan to significantly expand your put buying program on a scale-up basis over a protracted period of time and into more speculative names.
The problem I see is that January tends to be the time of year of greatest liquidity and this liquidity tends to flow to the most liquid stocks, like GE and Cisco.
My own likeliest scenario is that the giddiness continues for another week, followed by a week of hand-wringing as people nervously contemplate the Feb. 1 meeting, which, if followed by a 25 basis point increase leads to a significant relief rally and new highs, or, if followed by a 50 basis point increase, could lead to lower lows. In any case, until the spring, I would expect that people will eagerly buy the dips.
My recommendation would be to ease up on the puts until the normal seasonal factors begin to work with AG rather than against him in constraining liquidity. And then I would choose more speculative names than those you have selected.
Good luck,
Sam |
